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The best Maldives Weather site is:- http://www.meteorology.gov.mv/
Basically there is no way of predicting the weather, the only option is to decide when you want to/can travel and just book it and enjoy! The Maldives is paradise even if it is raining, and although it can and does happen you would be unlucky to experience more than three days of solid rain. BUT it should be noted that although not a frequent occurrence, it can rain for extensive periods and therefore that a 14 night holiday (especially during the wet season) COULD be a wash out as described in this thread (October 2012) :
Below is a detailed description of the Maldivian weather pattern:-
The Maldives is located at the equator and experiences monsoonal climate. The Maldives has two distinct seasons; dry season (northeast monsoon) and wet season (southwest monsoon). In these two seasons the temperature varies very little. Northeast monsoon extends from January to March, with the change over period in April then Southwest monsoon from May to November with December being the changeover to Northeast monsoon.
Daily temperature ranges from around 31c during the day to 23c at night. The mean daily maximum temperature for central parts (Male) is 30.5c and minimum temperature is 25.7c.
The highest temperature ever recorded in the Maldives was 36.8c recorded on 19 May 1991 and the minimum temperature ever recorded in the Maldives was 17.2c recorded on 11th April 1978. The wet season (Southwest monsoon) runs from mid-May to November. In this season the Maldives experiences torrential rain.
Central, Southern, and Northern parts of the Maldives receive annual average rainfall of 1924.7mm, 2277.8mm, and 1786.4mm, respectively. The highest rainfall ever recorded in the Maldives with in a 24 hour period was recorded on 9th July 2002 and amounts to 219.8mm of rainfall. The fact that the Maldives is located on the equator means that they receive lots of sunshine throughout the year.
On average Southern atolls (Gan) receive 2704.07 hours of sunshine each year, and Central (Male) receives 2784.51 hours of sunshine per year.
It is not possible to define the exact date of the arrival of the summer monsoon. Different countries have adopted different criteria to determine the arrival date of the monsoon. The start of a wet spell of three or more consecutive days of rainfall and change in wind direction was traditionally considered as the arrival of the southwest monsoon in the Maldives.
The last five years or so has seen the arrival of the Southwest monsoon around 1st May but it has been documented that it should arrive around the 16th of May and the Northeast monsoon has recently arrived around the 17th of December but should arrive around the 1st of December. This has had adverse affects on the weather with peak and off peak weather affected.
The islands which extend from 1 degree South of the Equator to fractionally over 7 degrees North, lie scattered along and on either side of the 73 degree East longitudinal line.
The temperature changes very little in every 24 hours. Rain can occur at any time and often without the slightest warning!
The weather pattern is mainly determined by the above said two monsoon seasons, in which the winds blow from opposite directions. Heavy rain storms occur mainly between May and October. As in most parts of the world, it is impossible to make precise forecasts, but even in the rainy season the sun shines most of the time.
The relatively high humidity is made tolerable by the gentle but steady sea breeze. The Maldivians who live by the subtle changes in the weather, have developed their own complex calendar based on the rising and setting of individual stars matched with the sun or the moon. The Maldivians have organized their lives around a calendar of Nakaiy - a series of 13 or 14 day intervals, each with a predictable weather pattern.
Every year brings two monsoons, Iruvai (the north-east) and Hulhangu (the south-west) monsoon. To most visitors this simply means the hot and dry season. During Iruvai, which has 9 Nakaiy, the wind blows from the East. The hot and wet season, Hulhangu, which has 18 Nakaiy, is a season of strong winds and stormy weather.
The first Nakaiy in the Hulhangu season, for instance, is called Assidha (from 8 April to 21 April) when the first rains fall. The following Nakaiy are good for clearing and planting. During the sixth Nakaiy, Adha (from 17 June to 30 June), seafarers steer towards the middle of storm clouds, as they tend to divide and give a clear path. And towards the end of the Hulhangu season, fishing is generally good.
The first period of the Iruvai season is Mula (from 10 December to 22 December), when winds blow from the north east and with sunshine. During this period, fishing is usually good on the eastern side and in the northern atolls. Nothing shows as clearly as this subtle and complex calendar of the Maldivians' profound practical knowledge of nature and their careful adaptation to their environment.
However, there are some months which are better to visit than others; climateandweather.com has a comprehensive month-by-month guide to the weather in the Maldives.